Catalysts & Headlines (CT)

Inflation expectations stay on the watchlist
Sticky expectations would keep rate-volatility risk elevated for long-duration growth trades.
08:45
Housing demand offers a light macro read
A firmer housing print would reinforce resilient-demand pricing and may keep yields firm.
09:00
Volatility remains a headwind for chase longs
Elevated Nasdaq volatility argues for buying pullbacks rather than pressing highs without acceptance.
12:16

Economic Calendar (CT)

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08:45USCleveland Fed Inflation ExpectationsMed
09:00USExisting Home SalesMed

Key Levels — NQ

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LevelPriceType
R329772Resistance
R229626Resistance
R129518Resistance
POC29412POC
Pivot29372Pivot
S129264Support
S229118Support
S328980Support

Overnight Session

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NQ Globex
29409.75
5038.75
ES Globex
7440.00
21.00
VIX
18.10
0.91
10Y Yield
4.402
0.038
DXY
97.95
0.05
Crude
98.96
3.54

Market Context

📊
NDX implied volatility score (0–100). Computed from VXN level: VXN<=15 -> ~100 (calm); VXN>=30 -> ~0 (stress). Green = calm/risk-on, supports bullish bias. Red = stressed, bearish for tech. Amber = mid.
VXN32
Options put/call balance (0–100). Higher = more puts, more hedging/fear. Lower = complacency. Green = low hedging. Red = heavy protection. Amber = balanced.
Put-Call52
VIX futures curve shape (0–100). Higher = steeper contango, calmer outlook. Lower = flatter or backwardated, stress rising. Green = calm. Red = elevated hedging demand. Amber = neutral.
VIX Term Structure44
NDX leadership momentum score (0–100). Derived from semis (SMH) day change + NQ momentum. Green = semis confirming risk-on (mag-7 bid). Red = semis weakening (warning for NDX). Amber = mixed.
Tech Momentum68
Market breadth (0–100). Higher = broad participation, healthy rally. Lower = narrow leadership, rotation risk. Green = strong breadth. Red = weak breadth. Amber = mixed.
Breadth55

Session Playbook

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Bull Case
OrderBuy Limit
Entry29360-29384
Stop29264
TP129518
TP229626
Pivot pullback keeps risk defined against S1; strength must reclaim R1 quickly, with R2 reserved for sustained tech leadership.
Bear Case
OrderSell Stop
Entry29360-29384
Stop29518
TP129118
TP228980
Loss of Pivot would turn the afternoon tape into a failed breakout; R1 caps risk while S2 and S3 restore downside symmetry.
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